September 19, 2026

Correlation Isn’t Enough: How to Test Whether “A Moved B” in Markets

When markets move, explanations follow quickly: “yields rose, so stocks fell,” or “the stronger dollar caused it.” But the same move can support several plausible stories, and correlation alone canno…

September 2, 2026

Do Higher U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yields Mean Lower S&P 500 Returns?

At the time of this analysis, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield had risen above 4.75%. But does a higher yield actually mean weaker short-term S&P 500 returns? We test this by separating the yield’s ab…