September 19, 2026

Correlation Isn’t Enough: How to Test Whether “A Moved B” in Markets

When markets move, explanations follow quickly: “yields rose, so stocks fell,” or “the stronger dollar caused it.” But the same move can support several plausible stories, and correlation alone canno…

September 2, 2026

Do Higher U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yields Mean Lower S&P 500 Returns?

At the time of this analysis, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield had risen above 4.75%. But does a higher yield actually mean weaker short-term S&P 500 returns? We test this by separating the yield’s ab…

September 9, 2026

Stronger Yen = Weaker Stocks, Weaker Yen = Stronger Stocks? Testing USD/JPY and the Nikkei 225

A stronger yen is often seen as a headwind for Japanese stocks, while a weaker yen is viewed as supportive. But what does the data show? We test the relationship between USD/JPY’s 1-day change and th…

September 11, 2026

Does Gold Go Up With Inflation? Testing U.S. CPI Against Gold’s 5-Day Returns

Gold is widely considered an inflation hedge. But does higher inflation actually mean higher gold prices in the days that follow? We compare U.S. CPI year-over-year with XAU/USD’s 5-trading-day forwa…