Decode Lab
An archive for explorers, chronicling the discoveries and insights from our ongoing journey.
September 9, 2026
Stronger Yen = Weaker Stocks, Weaker Yen = Stronger Stocks? Testing USD/JPY and the Nikkei 225
A stronger yen is often seen as a headwind for Japanese stocks, while a weaker yen is viewed as supportive. But what does the data show? We test the relationship between USD/JPY’s 1-day change and th…
September 19, 2026
Correlation Isn’t Enough: How to Test Whether “A Moved B” in Markets
When markets move, explanations follow quickly: “yields rose, so stocks fell,” or “the stronger dollar caused it.” But the same move can support several plausible stories, and correlation alone canno…
September 2, 2026
Do Higher U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yields Mean Lower S&P 500 Returns?
At the time of this analysis, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield had risen above 4.75%. But does a higher yield actually mean weaker short-term S&P 500 returns? We test this by separating the yield’s ab…
August 11, 2026
Does High CPI Really Weaken the S&P 500?
Higher inflation is often seen as a headwind for stocks. But does a high CPI reading actually mean weaker S&P 500 returns? This article tests that idea with data using FactDecode.
August 10, 2026
We’re Looking for Partners to Introduce FactDecode
FactDecode is looking for partners who can experience the platform firsthand and introduce it to audiences interested in investing, trading, finance, or data analysis.
August 25, 2026
Is Bitcoin Really an Inflation Hedge? — Testing Inflation Expectations and 30-Day Returns
Bitcoin is often described as a hedge against inflation and currency debasement. But does it actually perform better when market inflation expectations rise? We examine the relationship between the U…
Do Higher Japanese Bond Yields Strengthen the Yen? Testing Japan’s 10-Year Yield and USD/JPY
Higher Japanese yields are often cited as a reason for yen strength. But when Japan’s 10-year government bond yield rises, does USD/JPY actually tend to fall afterward? We compare 5-day changes in Ja…
August 17, 2026
How Do Rising Japanese Interest Rates Affect Stocks? — Testing EWJ with Data
Rising rates are often seen as a headwind for stocks. Our EWJ factor analysis suggests a more complicated relationship.
August 7, 2026
Test Investment Hypotheses with Data and AI — Introducing FactDecode
FactDecode is a research platform for testing investment hypotheses with data, factors, machine learning, and validation—all in one workflow.
July 28, 2026
What Does a Simultaneous Selloff Across All Assets Mean? The Market Forces Behind the “Great Capital Rotation”
“Buy the dip.” In recent markets, this has seemed like an almost infallible strategy. Whenever stocks or crypto assets experienced even a modest correction, the decline quickly became an ideal buying…
